← Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025
Fire RileTier 1
at Quicksilver Cup Auckland 2025
decks
22
(27.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
178
100-49-29
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.6%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
62.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
59.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1396
· median 1374
· range 1215–1599
(22 pilots with an ELO rating)
1074
Q1 1218
Q3 1406
1599
36% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
5% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 10 | 8-2-0 | 80.0% | 71.4% | 64.5% | +6.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 18 | 11-5-2 | 66.7% | 63.6% | 67.4% | +6.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.8% | 27 | 8-10-9 | 46.3% | 46.8% | 51.3% | +0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.5% | 11 | 6-4-1 | 59.1% | 56.7% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 20 | 6-10-4 | 40.0% | 41.7% | 34.4% | -6.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 64.1% | +8.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 8 | 7-0-1 | 93.8% | 79.2% | 74.6% | +11.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 21 | 10-7-4 | 57.1% | 56.0% | 58.6% | +3.3 |
| Water Allies | 5.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.2% | +7.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.4% | +9.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.8% | 10 | 8-1-1 | 85.0% | 75.0% | 67.7% | +7.9 |
| Slimes | 2.5% | 7 | 3-1-3 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 55.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 79.0% | +16.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.3% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.7% | +8.0 |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 9 | 2-4-3 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 27.7% | -10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Fractal | 1.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.9% | +9.6 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.3% | +8.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.4 |
Decklists · 22 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 38 mirror matches (9 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 8 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Under Fire, Vermilion Decree, Spark Alight. Losers more often ran: Varuckan Acolyte, Annul Spell, Backup Charger.
Under Fire
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 38 mirrors: the winner ran more in
12, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 24.
Vermilion Decree
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 38 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 23.
Spark Alight
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 38 mirrors: the winner ran more in
14, the loser ran more in 7,
both ran the same in 17.
Varuckan Acolyte
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 38 mirrors: the loser ran more in
24, the winner ran more in 6,
both ran the same in 8.
Annul Spell
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 38 mirrors: the loser ran more in
13, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 21.
Backup Charger
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 38 mirrors: the loser ran more in
13, the winner ran more in 5,
both ran the same in 20.
Orb of Sealing
Losing decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 38 mirrors: the loser ran more in
9, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 28.
Chalice of Blood
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 38 mirrors: the loser ran more in
12, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 22.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 38 mirrors: the loser ran more in
12, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 22.
Show all 150 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 130 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.47 | 6 | 24 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | +0.26 | 12 | 2 | 1 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.24 | 4 | 13 | 3 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.21 | 5 | 13 | 9 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.21 | 1 | 9 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.21 | 4 | 12 | 4 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.21 | 4 | 12 | 4 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.18 | 11 | 18 | 7 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.18 | 5 | 12 | 2 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | -0.18 | 1 | 8 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | -0.18 | 1 | 8 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | -0.18 | 1 | 8 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -0.18 | 1 | 8 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | -0.18 | 1 | 8 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | -0.18 | 1 | 8 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | -0.18 | 1 | 8 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -0.18 | 1 | 8 | 0 | |
| Fleeting Guard | -0.18 | 1 | 8 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.18 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.18 | 14 | 7 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.18 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.16 | 9 | 3 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.16 | 9 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.16 | 4 | 10 | 22 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.16 | 4 | 10 | 9 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.16 | 10 | 4 | 15 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.16 | 4 | 10 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | -0.13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.13 | 16 | 11 | 1 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.13 | 10 | 5 | 3 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| Smashing Force | -0.13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.13 | 10 | 15 | 8 | |
| Profane Bindings | -0.13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -0.13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.13 | 12 | 7 | 10 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.13 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.13 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.13 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.11 | 16 | 12 | 9 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.11 | 10 | 6 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.11 | 3 | 7 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.11 | 11 | 7 | 7 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.11 | 10 | 14 | 3 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.11 | 10 | 14 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.11 | 10 | 6 | 17 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.11 | 10 | 6 | 11 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.08 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.08 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.08 | 5 | 8 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.08 | 12 | 9 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.08 | 10 | 13 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.08 | 10 | 7 | 12 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.08 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.08 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.08 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.08 | 9 | 6 | 7 | |
| Firetongue | -0.08 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.08 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |
| Demolition | +0.08 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.08 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.08 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.05 | 11 | 9 | 8 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.05 | 10 | 8 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.05 | 1 | 3 | 34 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.05 | 5 | 7 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.05 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.05 | 8 | 10 | 8 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.05 | 9 | 11 | 9 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.05 | 9 | 7 | 9 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.05 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.05 | 11 | 9 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.05 | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.05 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.05 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -0.05 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.05 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.05 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.05 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.03 | 9 | 8 | 8 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +0.03 | 2 | 1 | 35 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.03 | 2 | 1 | 35 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.03 | 2 | 1 | 35 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
| Fireball | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.03 | 5 | 6 | 3 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.03 | 7 | 8 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.03 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.03 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | +0.03 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.03 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.03 | 6 | 5 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.03 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.03 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 6 | 6 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 12 | 12 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 |